Why Is Eric Sprott Bullish on Uranium?

Eric Sprott may be Canada's answer to Warrensolve. If we don't have assurance of supply, what
Buffet. He's got the Midas Touch and currentlyhappens?' One thing about Hubbert's Peak that
manages more than $3 billion. We talk to Ericmost people don't go to is the economic impact.
Sprott about uranium and why is bullish on nuclearForget the price of oil. What if we produce 83
energy.million barrels today, and in 25 years we have 55
Interviewer:million barrels? What is the world going to do? Do
Uranium had been inching higher from 2001 until awe just have to shut down economies because
year ago. Since then, it has soared up the pricewe don't have a replacement for hydrocarbons?
chart. What is a realistic price for uranium andInterviewer:
how high can you envision it reaching?Do you think the world governments are
Eric Sprott:prepared for this?
There is obviously a shortage between currentEric Sprott:
mine production and current uranium consumption.Not at all. They show no interest. In fact, I would
In order to correct that imbalance, it would havesay one of the real problems with the democratic
to be economic to open up new deposits. I'm notprocess is, unfortunately, too much time is spent
suggesting that it (uranium) has to go to $100 tothinking about politics. Hardly any time is spent
become economic. I don't think that's true.planning for the future.
Probably at $50, it becomes very economic. TheInterviewer:
reality is that we've been so slow in gettingOn uranium, you recommended a number of
started that I think the whole nuclear industry willuranium companies in your special report. Cameco
ultimately prove to be the key energy source of(NYSE: CCJ) seems to be the one many
the future. With demand today at 170 millionrecommend. Other uranium companies seem to
(pounds), who knows? It might be 300 millionbe in the exploration or the more speculative
pounds in twenty years. The argument in thecategory, and now have some momentum
article we wrote is that based on the previousbecause of the bull market in uranium. How strong
peaks, prices if you put a normal inflation rate onare the fundamentals in those companies?
it, it would equate to something like $100. So, it'sEric Sprott:
not that far fetched that we might get there.I think the fundamentals for some of the
Interviewer:companies are spectacular, quite frankly. It's
If it takes four or five years, or up to a decade,interesting for us because we had the same thing
to get a nuclear reactor going, why are thehappen in gold, when the price of gold was $250.
Chinese building so many so quickly?We tried to imagine what we should buy if, and
Eric Sprott:when, gold went to $400, which we thought it
Because they've been doing it right. One of thewould, or $500 or higher. The real opportunity
nice things about a centrally organizedalways lay in, 'We'll find someone who has a large
government is they deal with big issues.resource that is uneconomic today, but if you
Obviously, China has a big issue in energy. If youmove the price up, it becomes quite economic.' I
were sitting over there, you would realize, 'Mywould say Strathmore Minerals (TSX-V: STM).
god, we're starting to import two million barrels ofThey have a large resource already identified. In
oil. We used to export coal and now we don'tfact, they are acquiring properties all the time that
export coal. What are we going to do if ourwere identified years and years ago. Yet, at $20
growth rate continues to grow at eight or ninepound uranium, they probably don't make any
percent per year? How much power are wesense. But, at $40/pound uranium, they are likely
going to need? And where is it all going to cometo make tremendous economic sense. Of course,
from when there are already shortages of thethe value of the shares can almost - not go up
two most commonly used energy sources in theexponentially - but they can go up a lot.
country?' The option you fall back on is, 'Well, let'sYou finally tip over that breakeven level, and
go nuclear. We have to go into all of them.' Andeverything after that is profit. We had an analogy
of course, now they're predicting two nuclearlike that in gold area, where one guy went out
reactors every year for the next ten years. Whoand bought all these deposits that would make
knows? Maybe five years from now, that will besense at $400 gold. The stock has been a
four reactors every year. Perhaps when we alltremendous winner. I think it is up 500 percent. I
realize the extent of the energy shortage.think the same can happen in uranium. That's why
Interviewer:we go to Strathmore and UEX (TSX: UEX).
How is this going to be sold to North America andInterviewer:
Europe in the wake of Three Mile Island andHow do you feel about precious metals?
Chernobyl?Eric Sprott:
Eric Sprott:We feel pretty good about precious metals.
The way things might change is now that weWe've been pretty bullish for quite a while now.
have $50 oil, and the price is almost going up in anWe have liked the fundamentals for gold for a
unlimited fashion. Now that we've got coal atlong time for any one of ten different reasons.
double and uranium that's gone up, people mightThe one reason I fall back on, that gives me
finally realize there is not an infinite supply oftremendous comfort, is the fact the world
certain things that we rely on. And that we mightconsumes 4,000 tons of gold per year, but mine
have to take a more pragmatic view of theproduction is 2,500. Anybody who uses any bit of
nuclear option. I'm sure that is exactly whatlogic knows, in due course, the price will go up to
certain countries, including Japan, China and France,reflect the imbalance between demand and
have done. The other thing is that there is a newsupply. I don't care how much gold Central Banks
reactor where you can't have a meltdown. I'msell, ultimately they are going to have no gold. I
not technically strong enough to explain it. Thethink people realize that Central Banks have made
uranium is in graphite spheres, and they won'ta big mistake selling their gold.
melt down unless temperatures reach 2000Interviewer:
degrees. The highest it ever goes to is 1600The China card keeps driving global commodities
degrees so it's just not going to melt down.as they bring their country more technology. How
It doesn't matter if things are out of control.do you feel about the base metals?
They won't break down. If that kind of assuranceEric Sprott:
were accepted by the public - if someone couldWe haven't really gotten involved in the base
prove that that was the case - I think the nuclearmetals. One of the reason we haven't gone there
option would be an incredibly viable option.is we have believed we are in a secular bear
Another thing that would make people thinkmarket, and there could be a financial implosion. In
differently would be having brownouts for a while,that kind of scenario the base metals don't do
or hyperinflation because of the shortage of coal,well. But the precious metals can provide safety.
natural gas, and diesel fuel. If we had brownoutsThat's the distinguishing mark we make between
for a while, and of course they have brownouts inthe two. On the China thesis, the demand for all
China, which is probably why they are proactive inof these things would go up. Our problem is we
moving nuclear along.still expect some fallout in the financial arena,
Interviewer:which ultimately would even affect China. We feel
How realistic is the global energy crisis movingmore comfortable with the precious metals, and
toward a Hubbert's Peak, an energy scenariowe feel more comfortable with energy. Simply,
from the year 1970?energy demand in an economic implosion is pretty
Eric Sprott:inelastic. It doesn't fall off the table. Demand for
My view is that it seems very realistic. I think it iszinc, lead, copper, and aluminum can fall quite
very important that we do go back to 1970. Lookprecipitously if there was an economic slowdown.
at the fact that Hubbert said in 1956 that 1970Interviewer:
will forever peak out (in terms of energyAre you expecting an economic slowdown?
production). Lo and behold, it peaked out! It almostEric Sprott:
goes down every week in the United States.Absolutely, yes. We might be in it now. There are
Almost every week, there is a little lesscertainly lots of signs that there is not much
production. This is now with very high oil prices. Itrobustness in the U.S. economy. I have some
looks like his theory, for the geographical areavery strong views as to what should ultimately
called the United States, worked. Do we think it ishappen in the U.S. My views are predicated on the
going to work in the world? I tend to believe it is.fact that the government reports a deficit of
I believe there are projections for Great Britain,$400 billion, but there are also government
which I think are at about 4.2 million barrels/dayreports that suggest, on a GAAP accounting
right now, that in ten years from now, will bebasis, that the true deficit in 2003 was $3.4 trillion.
down to 700,000. That's what happens whenWe can all ignore it, and everyone has ignored it.
fields go into decline. They go down, and you canBut, the reality is that the liabilities are accruing for
not resuscitate them. Everyone who studies theSocial Security and Medicare in the U.S. at a
topic knows that no significant discoveries havetremendous rate. There has been no provision for
been made since the 1960s.it. There was a paper released by the U.S.
What I mean by significant are giant oil fields - likeTreasury Department about a year ago that said
Ghawar. For example, people now consider athe present value of their obligations, that are not
100-million barrel field a big deal, and 500 million isfunded, is $44 trillion. Again, we can choose to
great. Well, one hundred million is like 1.2 days ofbelieve it or not believe it. I happen to believe it. I
world's supply, and 500 million is eight days supply.made the point that politicians are in it to be
You have got to find a lot of those every year.re-elected, and they are not dealing with the real
We don't find them. We have hardly foundissue.
anything. The Caspian Sea? I am guessing it is 500The real issue is they are making promises to
to 700 million. It's the one thing we point to, thetheir citizens that they can't keep. And they're not
thing in the Caspian Sea, which we have beengoing to keep them. I would hate to be a retired
pointing to for the last three years. Let's say it isperson or a young person in the U.S. Somebody is
800 million barrels, it is ten days' supply. It'sgoing to have to bear the brunt of all these
nothing.funding issues that haven't been taken care of.
Interviewer:Beginning in 2008, the baby boomers start
There have been some pretty incrediblecollecting these things. That's a real cash problem.
estimates as to how high oil can go. The highestBefore, it was just a bookkeeping problem. You'll
we're read of stands at $182 for a barrel of oilhave a huge influx of people collecting their Social
and $15 per gallon of gasoline. Your comments?Security and getting free Medicare. It's got to be
Eric Sprott:funded. Anyone who's looked at the problem has
When you get into any commodity, where thereagreed that no one has done anything about
is a bonafide shortage, there is no limit on thefunding it. You have to cut what your promises
price. There is hardly any limit on the price.were, which is what all the European governments
Because that last guy still wants that last barrel ofare now trying to do. They're all cutting back on
oil. I always say, when a commodity is starting tothe pension. Most companies are cutting back on
break loose, 'Never put a ceiling on it because youthem because they can't fund them. The trend is
never know where it is going to go.' You look atin place here: What we thought we were going to
what is going on in the world oil situation. If I wasget, we're not going to get it. Am I bearish?
(in charge of ) certain countries, I would probablyGosh, we've had forty years of living off of
be changing what I'm doing. You can see Chinasavings that were supposed to be saved to
going throughout the world signing agreementsprovide this future. It was all spent. Everyone just
with countries to assure oil supplies. It's achooses to ignore it.
government mandate to go out and secure theirCOPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc.
supplies. I think people at the government levelALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
realize, 'We have issues here that we have to