| To most overseas investors circa 1994, a first | | | | there is the entire wherewithal required to |
| look at the Indian Telecommunication Policy | | | | inter-operate with existing 2G elements of the |
| appeared to mitigate concerns. In our | | | | network. |
| naiveté, we expected this Policy to put | | | | An alternative however does exist, that until |
| India at least on par with China where a stifling | | | | recently dare not speak its name for fear of the |
| regime governed telecommunications. A disastrous | | | | Telecommunication establishment. |
| implementation however ensured India languished | | | | Contrary to negative press stemming largely |
| behind its neighbor on tele-density, cellular usage | | | | from the large cellular operators, it's possible to |
| and broadband coverage. | | | | co-opt Wireless LANs (WLANs) into one |
| Fortunately, later developments like the Unified | | | | eco-system with cellular networks. An |
| Licensing Scheme, albeit a reactionary response to | | | | EDGE-enabled cellular network patched into WLAN |
| events threatening to overwhelm TRAI (the | | | | (WiFi/WiMax) networks in high density locations |
| Regulator), do pull Indian de-regulation ahead of | | | | could allow Indian operators to deliver high-speed |
| even places like Hong Kong where a unified | | | | data services with laser precision exactly where |
| scenario is only just being discussed. Merits of | | | | required and at far less costs than in 3G-ing a |
| particular aspects of de-regulation notwithstanding, | | | | similar area. I trust this is akin to what the IT |
| the overseas investor expects to see a clear | | | | Minister has in mind. Additionally, such meshed |
| roadmap forward if the increase in permissible FDI | | | | network could provide indoor voice connectivity |
| to 74% has to hold any meaning. The recent | | | | over cell phones in broadband-enabled locations |
| imbroglio on the future of the 1900MHz band is an | | | | with poor cellular reception. |
| excellent opportunity for TRAI to use the | | | | An interesting twist comes from the recent |
| controversy to draw up precisely such a map. | | | | furtive WiMax deployment in Japan by Vodafone |
| Of equal concern to the foreign investor and | | | | and elsewhere by other marquee 3G operators, |
| something on which operators on both sides of | | | | vidicating the position taken in this paper. |
| the GSM-CDMA divide concur, is the demise of | | | | The cellular operator may have to offer different |
| high margin demand. The future holds a long slog | | | | fixed line/broadband type tariff structures in |
| uphill for every rupee increase to the ARPU | | | | these locations, raising fears that they would eat |
| (Average Revenue per User). Making it more | | | | into cellular revenues, But one has to wonder how |
| interesting is the futility of erstwhile successful | | | | much of the generated traffic would represent |
| product and marketing strategies under today's | | | | cannibalized revenue and how much would bring in |
| margin conditions. Additionally when one last | | | | incremental dollars from traffic presently going |
| looked, the government had its hand in the till for | | | | any way over fixed/wireless broadband and over |
| an unbelievable 22-25% of revenues in the form | | | | the different flavors of Voice over Broadband |
| of license fees, revenue share and a second | | | | (VoB) services used increasingly from precisely |
| license fee through a disingenuous "spectrum | | | | such locations. |
| usage charge". Add the Access Deficit Charge | | | | No one touts OFDMA air-interfaces as an |
| (ADC) ransom being paid out to the Dominant | | | | alternative to WCDMA /3G. It's the integration of |
| carrier BSNL and one cannot blame some | | | | the two technologies that creates a potentially |
| investors for setting aside their calculators and | | | | winning alternative, especially in the Indian context. |
| heading for the door. | | | | Integrating selected WLAN Hot spots into a |
| With cellular collection rates at abysmal levels | | | | cellular network requires an IP Network Controller |
| thanks to the pseudo-WLL/CDMA roll outs, the | | | | (INC), an IP access network, a patch to allow the |
| cellular operators look at additional infrastructure | | | | WLAN access network to issue the relevant |
| investments with trepidation. However, innovative | | | | accounting information to the cellular AAA |
| value-added services being one of the few ways | | | | (authentication, authorization, and accounting) |
| to elevate ARPUs out of their funk, invest they | | | | server and an investment in IP roaming. Barring a |
| must. How intelligently they do so, decides their | | | | few more widgets, that's essentially it. |
| fate. | | | | Given the relative simplicity of this solution, |
| The 2003-04 EDGE (Enhanced Data for GSM | | | | anyone who has seen engineers sweat over cell |
| Evolution) deployment by some GSM operators is | | | | site deployment in congested locations has to |
| the sort of response one hoped to see. Cost | | | | wonder why the operators have not already |
| effectively providing three times the data | | | | adopted WLAN to augment cellular coverage on |
| capacity of GPRS, EDGE gives operators like | | | | the cheap. |
| Bharti, Hutch and IDEA the delivery system to | | | | Costs aside, there is an interesting aspect of 3G |
| offer innovative information and entertainment | | | | technology that could force operators to consider |
| based services, as well as economically venture | | | | OFDMA based options to augment cellular data |
| into rural areas. Using the same TDMA (Time | | | | delivery systems. It may not be common |
| Division Multiple Access) frame structure as GSM, | | | | knowledge, but 3G differs from 2G (GSM) in one |
| EDGE allows existing cell plans to remain intact. On | | | | important aspect - the interdependence of |
| the other hand it uses a new modulation scheme | | | | network quality. In 2G, high traffic in one location |
| that is also used for UMTS/3G. This makes it a | | | | tends to introduce poor quality in just the |
| sort of half-way house to 3G, for those still brave | | | | particular cell covering that location. In 3G |
| enough to contemplate that option. However while | | | | however, the bad quality also impacts surrounding |
| EDGE was a smart decision, the jury is still out on | | | | cells because a cell size may vary depending on |
| 3G. | | | | the traffic load it carries. Called "cell-breathing" this |
| Emulating European cellular operators whose track | | | | is due to the interdependence between capacity |
| record belies such faith, some Indian cellular | | | | and coverage over WCDMA air-interfaces and |
| carriers have nevertheless started chalking out | | | | could end up impacting voice quality. |
| transition paths towards that Holy Grail. Even if | | | | No service provider however, is going to |
| the collection rates in India were not as dismal as | | | | jeopardize voice quality and capacity for the sake |
| they are, deploying 3G could be a disaster waiting | | | | of data. This implies there are merits to a |
| to happen. It was heartening therefore when the | | | | separate data-centric network. And if such |
| Indian IT Minister stated last year that India aims | | | | options are available at least at the peripheries, at |
| to leapfrog to fourth-generation wireless | | | | costs substantially lower than the vaunted 3G and |
| technology, skipping 3G as it has not been found | | | | if these options appear slated to become the |
| cost-effective. This is one of the rare occasions | | | | bulwark of future 4G data delivery mechanisms, it |
| when the industry is well served by listening to its | | | | then surely behooves the Indian cellular operator |
| Minister. | | | | not to adopt the same blinkered thinking that's |
| However these are mere words until the | | | | the hallmark of his European counterpart and to |
| Honorable Minister first unfetters VOIP | | | | look seriously at a GSM/EDGE-WLAN based |
| (Voice-over-IP). Unless the chastity belt around | | | | solution. |
| VOIP networks is discarded and they are allowed | | | | It baffles why instead of prevaricating, the |
| to mingle with the PSTN, India is going to tie itself | | | | European and American cellular companies haven't |
| into knots over 4G, inside which by the way, the | | | | swooped in and massively sequestered wireless |
| pervasive theme is IP. Living outside India one | | | | access for IP traffic from the fragmented but |
| usually lags behind unfolding events, but to the | | | | potentially formidable WLAN and Voice over |
| best of my knowledge even today the VOIP - | | | | Broadband (VoB) players. After all, at least for |
| PSTN interconnect incredibly, remain illegal. | | | | now the cellular operator holds all the cards. Only |
| One beneficial outcome to the 1996 fiasco | | | | he gets to decide whether the customer receives |
| surrounding the bids for regional circles has been | | | | a combined cellular + WLAN bill. This gives his |
| an all around reluctance to consider further | | | | combined cellular-WLAN service a killer advantage |
| auctions, including for 3G. This saved Indian | | | | over any other Fixed/wireless broadband or |
| operators from the fate of their European | | | | Vonage-type VoB offering. By now the cellular |
| counterparts. While Europe's 3G license fees did | | | | operators could have usurped great chunks of IP |
| nothing to secure a future for the technology, | | | | traffic and decimated the upstart VoB players |
| emerging OFDMA (WiFi/ WiMax MMDS) | | | | before they ever took root. Alternatively, just a |
| alternatives may very well deliver the coup de | | | | declaration of intent could have the WLAN & |
| grace. Whatever the counter-arguments out | | | | VoB players scurrying to negotiate interconnect |
| there, the fact that 3G services in The UK still | | | | and revenue share agreements on terms that |
| resort to distress sales of basic voice services to | | | | could only be favorable to the cellular operator. |
| garner a customer base, says it all. | | | | It's too obvious a scenario and one doesn't |
| Unlike EDGE, going 3G does not just involve | | | | expect such shortsightedness to last. T-Mobile's |
| software upgrades and the math becomes more | | | | extensive WiFi deployment in the USA and in |
| daunting by orders of magnitude. For starters, the | | | | Europe is apparently with such an end-game in |
| air-interface/ frame structure (WCDMA as against | | | | mind. And so was, we hope, the honorable IT |
| TDMA) is totally different. This means changes at | | | | Minister's intention, when he squared off against |
| every cell-site in the network. And then of course | | | | 3G. |