Indian Mobile Infrastructure - To 3G or Not To 3G

To most overseas investors circa 1994, a firstthere is the entire wherewithal required to
look at the Indian Telecommunication Policyinter-operate with existing 2G elements of the
appeared to mitigate concerns. In ournetwork.
naiveté, we expected this Policy to putAn alternative however does exist, that until
India at least on par with China where a stiflingrecently dare not speak its name for fear of the
regime governed telecommunications. A disastrousTelecommunication establishment.
implementation however ensured India languishedContrary to negative press stemming largely
behind its neighbor on tele-density, cellular usagefrom the large cellular operators, it's possible to
and broadband coverage.co-opt Wireless LANs (WLANs) into one
Fortunately, later developments like the Unifiedeco-system with cellular networks. An
Licensing Scheme, albeit a reactionary response toEDGE-enabled cellular network patched into WLAN
events threatening to overwhelm TRAI (the(WiFi/WiMax) networks in high density locations
Regulator), do pull Indian de-regulation ahead ofcould allow Indian operators to deliver high-speed
even places like Hong Kong where a unifieddata services with laser precision exactly where
scenario is only just being discussed. Merits ofrequired and at far less costs than in 3G-ing a
particular aspects of de-regulation notwithstanding,similar area. I trust this is akin to what the IT
the overseas investor expects to see a clearMinister has in mind. Additionally, such meshed
roadmap forward if the increase in permissible FDInetwork could provide indoor voice connectivity
to 74% has to hold any meaning. The recentover cell phones in broadband-enabled locations
imbroglio on the future of the 1900MHz band is anwith poor cellular reception.
excellent opportunity for TRAI to use theAn interesting twist comes from the recent
controversy to draw up precisely such a map.furtive WiMax deployment in Japan by Vodafone
Of equal concern to the foreign investor andand elsewhere by other marquee 3G operators,
something on which operators on both sides ofvidicating the position taken in this paper.
the GSM-CDMA divide concur, is the demise ofThe cellular operator may have to offer different
high margin demand. The future holds a long slogfixed line/broadband type tariff structures in
uphill for every rupee increase to the ARPUthese locations, raising fears that they would eat
(Average Revenue per User). Making it moreinto cellular revenues, But one has to wonder how
interesting is the futility of erstwhile successfulmuch of the generated traffic would represent
product and marketing strategies under today'scannibalized revenue and how much would bring in
margin conditions. Additionally when one lastincremental dollars from traffic presently going
looked, the government had its hand in the till forany way over fixed/wireless broadband and over
an unbelievable 22-25% of revenues in the formthe different flavors of Voice over Broadband
of license fees, revenue share and a second(VoB) services used increasingly from precisely
license fee through a disingenuous "spectrumsuch locations.
usage charge". Add the Access Deficit ChargeNo one touts OFDMA air-interfaces as an
(ADC) ransom being paid out to the Dominantalternative to WCDMA /3G. It's the integration of
carrier BSNL and one cannot blame somethe two technologies that creates a potentially
investors for setting aside their calculators andwinning alternative, especially in the Indian context.
heading for the door.Integrating selected WLAN Hot spots into a
With cellular collection rates at abysmal levelscellular network requires an IP Network Controller
thanks to the pseudo-WLL/CDMA roll outs, the(INC), an IP access network, a patch to allow the
cellular operators look at additional infrastructureWLAN access network to issue the relevant
investments with trepidation. However, innovativeaccounting information to the cellular AAA
value-added services being one of the few ways(authentication, authorization, and accounting)
to elevate ARPUs out of their funk, invest theyserver and an investment in IP roaming. Barring a
must. How intelligently they do so, decides theirfew more widgets, that's essentially it.
fate.Given the relative simplicity of this solution,
The 2003-04 EDGE (Enhanced Data for GSManyone who has seen engineers sweat over cell
Evolution) deployment by some GSM operators issite deployment in congested locations has to
the sort of response one hoped to see. Costwonder why the operators have not already
effectively providing three times the dataadopted WLAN to augment cellular coverage on
capacity of GPRS, EDGE gives operators likethe cheap.
Bharti, Hutch and IDEA the delivery system toCosts aside, there is an interesting aspect of 3G
offer innovative information and entertainmenttechnology that could force operators to consider
based services, as well as economically ventureOFDMA based options to augment cellular data
into rural areas. Using the same TDMA (Timedelivery systems. It may not be common
Division Multiple Access) frame structure as GSM,knowledge, but 3G differs from 2G (GSM) in one
EDGE allows existing cell plans to remain intact. Onimportant aspect - the interdependence of
the other hand it uses a new modulation schemenetwork quality. In 2G, high traffic in one location
that is also used for UMTS/3G. This makes it atends to introduce poor quality in just the
sort of half-way house to 3G, for those still braveparticular cell covering that location. In 3G
enough to contemplate that option. However whilehowever, the bad quality also impacts surrounding
EDGE was a smart decision, the jury is still out oncells because a cell size may vary depending on
3G.the traffic load it carries. Called "cell-breathing" this
Emulating European cellular operators whose trackis due to the interdependence between capacity
record belies such faith, some Indian cellularand coverage over WCDMA air-interfaces and
carriers have nevertheless started chalking outcould end up impacting voice quality.
transition paths towards that Holy Grail. Even ifNo service provider however, is going to
the collection rates in India were not as dismal asjeopardize voice quality and capacity for the sake
they are, deploying 3G could be a disaster waitingof data. This implies there are merits to a
to happen. It was heartening therefore when theseparate data-centric network. And if such
Indian IT Minister stated last year that India aimsoptions are available at least at the peripheries, at
to leapfrog to fourth-generation wirelesscosts substantially lower than the vaunted 3G and
technology, skipping 3G as it has not been foundif these options appear slated to become the
cost-effective. This is one of the rare occasionsbulwark of future 4G data delivery mechanisms, it
when the industry is well served by listening to itsthen surely behooves the Indian cellular operator
Minister.not to adopt the same blinkered thinking that's
However these are mere words until thethe hallmark of his European counterpart and to
Honorable Minister first unfetters VOIPlook seriously at a GSM/EDGE-WLAN based
(Voice-over-IP). Unless the chastity belt aroundsolution.
VOIP networks is discarded and they are allowedIt baffles why instead of prevaricating, the
to mingle with the PSTN, India is going to tie itselfEuropean and American cellular companies haven't
into knots over 4G, inside which by the way, theswooped in and massively sequestered wireless
pervasive theme is IP. Living outside India oneaccess for IP traffic from the fragmented but
usually lags behind unfolding events, but to thepotentially formidable WLAN and Voice over
best of my knowledge even today the VOIP -Broadband (VoB) players. After all, at least for
PSTN interconnect incredibly, remain illegal.now the cellular operator holds all the cards. Only
One beneficial outcome to the 1996 fiascohe gets to decide whether the customer receives
surrounding the bids for regional circles has beena combined cellular + WLAN bill. This gives his
an all around reluctance to consider furthercombined cellular-WLAN service a killer advantage
auctions, including for 3G. This saved Indianover any other Fixed/wireless broadband or
operators from the fate of their EuropeanVonage-type VoB offering. By now the cellular
counterparts. While Europe's 3G license fees didoperators could have usurped great chunks of IP
nothing to secure a future for the technology,traffic and decimated the upstart VoB players
emerging OFDMA (WiFi/ WiMax MMDS)before they ever took root. Alternatively, just a
alternatives may very well deliver the coup dedeclaration of intent could have the WLAN &
grace. Whatever the counter-arguments outVoB players scurrying to negotiate interconnect
there, the fact that 3G services in The UK stilland revenue share agreements on terms that
resort to distress sales of basic voice services tocould only be favorable to the cellular operator.
garner a customer base, says it all.It's too obvious a scenario and one doesn't
Unlike EDGE, going 3G does not just involveexpect such shortsightedness to last. T-Mobile's
software upgrades and the math becomes moreextensive WiFi deployment in the USA and in
daunting by orders of magnitude. For starters, theEurope is apparently with such an end-game in
air-interface/ frame structure (WCDMA as againstmind. And so was, we hope, the honorable IT
TDMA) is totally different. This means changes atMinister's intention, when he squared off against
every cell-site in the network. And then of course3G.