| Every conflict has its economic moments and | | | | the cosseted establishment. Many a criminal dabble |
| dimensions. The current conflict in Macedonia | | | | in politics and business.Hence the tenacity of both |
| perhaps even more so.The USA and its Western | | | | phenomena. Hence the bleak and pessimistic |
| allies regard Macedonia as a bridge between | | | | outlook for this region. The "formal" economies |
| Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania. Hence the | | | | simply cannot compete. Jobs are not created, the |
| EU's plans for the revival of transport corridors 8 | | | | educated are often bitterly idle, salaries are |
| and 10 connecting these countries. If all goes well | | | | minuscule if paid at all, the future is past. Crime |
| (and nothing has hitherto), railways will connect | | | | and politics (one and the same in the Balkan) are |
| Bulgaria to Macedonia and river traffic will flow to | | | | alluring alternatives.Moreover, the NLA itself is not |
| Serbia from its southern neighbours. All this is | | | | a monolithic entity. It is more like an umbrella |
| envisioned in the Stability Pact. There are talks of | | | | organization with serious and fracturing differences |
| an oil pipeline across Macedonia's territory. A | | | | of opinion regarding the ultimate goals the |
| pacified Macedonia is fairly crucial to Serbia's | | | | insurrection and the means to obtain these goals. |
| recovery and to the prospects of the whole | | | | Roughly, it is made up of one third veteran |
| region to attract FDI.NATO is afraid of | | | | Kosovo fighters, some of them professional |
| Turkish-Greek clashes in the aftermath of | | | | soldiers, who also fought in Croatia, or in the |
| Kosovo and Macedonia. Turkey has increasingly | | | | Foreign Legion. These people are bitter and |
| cast itself in its ancient role of "protector of the | | | | disgruntled by what they see as the betrayal of |
| Balkan Muslims". Greece is the only | | | | the West in refusing to guarantee an independent |
| Orthodox-Christian member of the EU and an old | | | | Kosovo and the failure of the current Kosovar |
| foe of the erstwhile Sick Man of Europe from | | | | leadership to integrate them economically into the |
| which it won bloody independence at the beginning | | | | emerging polity there. Their motives are part |
| of the 19th century. Such clashes are likely to | | | | emotional and part pecuniary. Another third is |
| destabilize the southern flank of NATO and block | | | | made of unemployed, young Albanians, mainly |
| the West's access to Iraq, the Middle East, oil-rich | | | | from Macedonia itself. Their fighting is |
| Central Asia, and northern China. This will seriously | | | | self-interested. They get a monthly salary and |
| dent the new "Pacific Orientation" of the Bush | | | | perks and, lacking education and skills, they don't |
| Administration.And what about the actual | | | | have much of a choice outside the killing fields. |
| combatants?Albanians and Macedonian crime | | | | The rest are diehard, hardcore, idealists who |
| gangs (in cahoots with kleptocratic and venal local | | | | either fervently espouse a Great Albania, or would |
| politicians) regard Macedonia as a vital route for | | | | like to take over Western Macedonian in a |
| drugs, stolen cars, smuggled cigarettes and soft | | | | "constitutional coup" which will grant them their |
| drinks, illegal immigrants, white slavery, and | | | | own police force, municipalities, institutions, |
| weapons dealing. These criminal activities far | | | | universities, budgets, and semi-political structures. |
| outweigh the GDP of all the adversary states | | | | The NLA itself is not directly involved in criminal |
| combined. This conflict is about controlling territory | | | | activities, though a few of its members are. But |
| and the economic benefits attendant to such | | | | the money that finances it (from the Czech |
| control.Crime and war provide employment, | | | | Republic, Switzerland, Germany, and the USA) is |
| status, regular income, perks, and livelihood to | | | | tainted by drug dealing, white slavery, illegal |
| many denizens of Macedonia, Albania, and Bulgaria. | | | | immigration, and the smuggling of everything illicit, |
| They constitute an outlet for entrepreneurship, | | | | from cigarettes to stolen cars, to weapons. In this |
| however perverted. Fighting for the cause and | | | | they collaborate with politicians and criminals in |
| smuggling often means travel abroad (for | | | | Macedonia - both Albanian and Macedonian.Being a |
| instance, on fund raising missions), five star | | | | politician in the Balkan is an extremely lucrative |
| accommodation, and a lavish lifestyle. It also | | | | proposition. Both Albanian and Macedonian |
| translates into powers of patronage and excesses | | | | politicians will abandon the peace process if they |
| of self-enrichment.Moreover, in ossified, socially | | | | believe it leads to electoral ruin. Given the current |
| stratified, ethnically polarized, and economically | | | | atmosphere, it doesn't pay to be a pacifist. |
| impoverished societies, war and crime engender | | | | Virulent nationalism is a guaranteed vote winner. |
| social mobility. The likes of Hashim Thaci and Ali | | | | The re-election ticket requires xenophobia, ethnic |
| Ahmeti often start as rebels and end as part of | | | | exclusivity, and radicalism. Here lies the future. |